All too often the really disadvantaged are in no position to rebel: they just suffer quietly.” Little relationship has been found between the risk of civil war and political repression or intergroup hatreds or income inequality or colonial history. “Rebels usually have something to complain about, and if they don’t they make it up. Sometimes rebel movements get finances from resource exporters in return for future deals. When the economy is weak the state is weak and rebellion is easier. Low income means poverty and low growth means hopelessness and available young men. Civil war reduces income and low income increases the risk of civil war. Paul Collier’s Bottom Billion Theory can be used to criticise all previous grand-theories of development – modernisation theory, dependency theory and neoliberalism.ħ3% of people in the bottom billion countries are in a civil war or have recently been through one. Aid does not work well in these places but there are things we can and should do because neglect will pose a security nightmare for the world of our children. Global poverty has been falling for decades, but a few countries which are caught in four distinct traps (such as the resource curse) are falling behind and falling apart.
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